Note: I’m experimenting with Substack’s audio features. This week you can read the newsletter below, or listen to me read it by clicking the link above. Thanks! “No amount of real resources devoted to medical research would have helped European society in 1348 to solve the riddle of the Black Death.” -
We didn't get a vaccine for SARS-1 in time to be useful, and we dont have one for the 4 endemic coronaviruses, and it seems very likely that covid19 will become endemic/seasonal, so it is quite likely that all money spent on a vaccine will be mostly wasted.
So if you really have that money available, it may be better to spend it on
# improving treatment and prophylaxis
# protecting doctors, health staff and family members better (eg. negative pressure rooms)
# improving your health system or nutrition for all-causes mortality
# low dose effect Challenge Trials, as proposed by Prof Robin Hanson, especially for humanitarian/relief workers and young Navy teams
We didn't get a vaccine for SARS-1 in time to be useful, and we dont have one for the 4 endemic coronaviruses, and it seems very likely that covid19 will become endemic/seasonal, so it is quite likely that all money spent on a vaccine will be mostly wasted.
So if you really have that money available, it may be better to spend it on
# improving treatment and prophylaxis
# protecting doctors, health staff and family members better (eg. negative pressure rooms)
# improving your health system or nutrition for all-causes mortality
# low dose effect Challenge Trials, as proposed by Prof Robin Hanson, especially for humanitarian/relief workers and young Navy teams