I think it’s becoming clear to anyone seriously analyzing technological progress that is has been slowing across most fields. I think two things obfuscate this: 1) The last 50 years of extremely rapid computational growth and the benefits that provides across industries has been dramatic. 2) There is no shortage of hype and promises to fuel a feeling of ever accelerating technology change.
However with respect to number one it’s clear that Moore’s law has been slowing and started really slowing down around 2010. As a lead technologist in a computer company, I tracked Moore’s law very closely for decades and believe me, the slow down was clear by every measure: computation per dollar, computation per watt, storage cost per dollar, etc…
With Moore’s Law slowing down that is essentially the last big technology Leap of the last 200 years.
There are so many examples to choose from it’s hard to know where to start but let’s just put it this way: we haven’t discovered any new usable atoms on the periodic table for a long time. This is why material science is fairly stuck despite all the hype about nano this or carbon that. Just at Elon musk‘s fancy new rocket ship… what is it using for fuel? liquid oxygen and kerosene or methane? What is it made out of? Aluminum and stainless steel! Hmmm… Not too different than what was used in World War II for the V2 and in the 70’s for Apollo.
How about some of the most advanced aluminum alloys. Did you know that one of them, that is still considered fairly state of the art, was first used in 1938 on the Mitsubishi zero fighter? That’s 84 years ago? Yes they have gotten cheaper and now you can find them on common products, I agree, but there is no new aluminum alloy that is 3, 5, or 10 times stronger than there was 80 years ago.
Look at the efficiency of steam engines that convert heat into electricity such as used in our power plants. The first Newcomb engine was about 0.5-1 percent efficient, then James Watt created an engine that was 5% efficient now they’re 40 to 50% efficient. That is a growth of 50-100 times and since you can’t get more than 100% efficient so there’s only 2X more to go.
The math is inescapable, we have simply squeezed most the blood out of most of the turnips. There simply isn’t a shelf full of Star Trek and Star Wars technologies ready to be quickly invented.
On top of that, some of the disciplines are getting so complex that it’s beyond the capabilities of one person, one very intelligent person even, to make significant progress. The days of one Thomas Edison and a small team whipping out 10 or 15 inventions in a few years that shake up the world are long gone. We have today are large teams of investigators in large institutions working for years to make small incremental advantages in one small area.
I am not sure whether Substack notified you, but I cross-posted this article earlier this week. It is part of my series of cross-posts on what I believe are the best progress-related articles on Substack.
Sorry, my comment was so long it doesn’t always all show: the last part…
Look at the efficiency of steam engines that convert heat into electricity such as used in our power plants. The first Newcomb engine was about 0.5-1 percent efficient, then James Watt created an engine that was 5% efficient now they’re 40 to 50% efficient. That is a growth of 50-100 times and since you can’t get more than 100% efficient so there’s only 2X more to go.
The math is inescapable, we have simply squeezed most the blood out of most of the turnips. There simply isn’t a shelf full of Star Trek and Star Wars technologies ready to be quickly invented.
On top of that, some of the disciplines are getting so complex that it’s beyond the capabilities of one person, one very intelligent person even, to make significant progress. The days of one Thomas Edison and a small team whipping out 10 or 15 inventions in a few years that shake up the world are long gone. We have today are large teams of investigators in large institutions working for years to make small incremental advantages in one small area.
I wonder about combining field crops and livestock. Generally speaking livestock agriculture is likely to be much less impacted by weather conditions. As your last figure shows, there's also less influence from innovations in the broader economy. Though the impact of automation and CRISPR down the road may change that independence.
I think it’s becoming clear to anyone seriously analyzing technological progress that is has been slowing across most fields. I think two things obfuscate this: 1) The last 50 years of extremely rapid computational growth and the benefits that provides across industries has been dramatic. 2) There is no shortage of hype and promises to fuel a feeling of ever accelerating technology change.
However with respect to number one it’s clear that Moore’s law has been slowing and started really slowing down around 2010. As a lead technologist in a computer company, I tracked Moore’s law very closely for decades and believe me, the slow down was clear by every measure: computation per dollar, computation per watt, storage cost per dollar, etc…
With Moore’s Law slowing down that is essentially the last big technology Leap of the last 200 years.
There are so many examples to choose from it’s hard to know where to start but let’s just put it this way: we haven’t discovered any new usable atoms on the periodic table for a long time. This is why material science is fairly stuck despite all the hype about nano this or carbon that. Just at Elon musk‘s fancy new rocket ship… what is it using for fuel? liquid oxygen and kerosene or methane? What is it made out of? Aluminum and stainless steel! Hmmm… Not too different than what was used in World War II for the V2 and in the 70’s for Apollo.
How about some of the most advanced aluminum alloys. Did you know that one of them, that is still considered fairly state of the art, was first used in 1938 on the Mitsubishi zero fighter? That’s 84 years ago? Yes they have gotten cheaper and now you can find them on common products, I agree, but there is no new aluminum alloy that is 3, 5, or 10 times stronger than there was 80 years ago.
Look at the efficiency of steam engines that convert heat into electricity such as used in our power plants. The first Newcomb engine was about 0.5-1 percent efficient, then James Watt created an engine that was 5% efficient now they’re 40 to 50% efficient. That is a growth of 50-100 times and since you can’t get more than 100% efficient so there’s only 2X more to go.
The math is inescapable, we have simply squeezed most the blood out of most of the turnips. There simply isn’t a shelf full of Star Trek and Star Wars technologies ready to be quickly invented.
On top of that, some of the disciplines are getting so complex that it’s beyond the capabilities of one person, one very intelligent person even, to make significant progress. The days of one Thomas Edison and a small team whipping out 10 or 15 inventions in a few years that shake up the world are long gone. We have today are large teams of investigators in large institutions working for years to make small incremental advantages in one small area.
I am not sure whether Substack notified you, but I cross-posted this article earlier this week. It is part of my series of cross-posts on what I believe are the best progress-related articles on Substack.
Sorry, my comment was so long it doesn’t always all show: the last part…
Look at the efficiency of steam engines that convert heat into electricity such as used in our power plants. The first Newcomb engine was about 0.5-1 percent efficient, then James Watt created an engine that was 5% efficient now they’re 40 to 50% efficient. That is a growth of 50-100 times and since you can’t get more than 100% efficient so there’s only 2X more to go.
The math is inescapable, we have simply squeezed most the blood out of most of the turnips. There simply isn’t a shelf full of Star Trek and Star Wars technologies ready to be quickly invented.
On top of that, some of the disciplines are getting so complex that it’s beyond the capabilities of one person, one very intelligent person even, to make significant progress. The days of one Thomas Edison and a small team whipping out 10 or 15 inventions in a few years that shake up the world are long gone. We have today are large teams of investigators in large institutions working for years to make small incremental advantages in one small area.
I wonder about combining field crops and livestock. Generally speaking livestock agriculture is likely to be much less impacted by weather conditions. As your last figure shows, there's also less influence from innovations in the broader economy. Though the impact of automation and CRISPR down the road may change that independence.
This is fascinating! Well done!